2026 will see the UK public sector transition from AI experimentation to transformation

Digital transformation is accelerating across the public sector, led by AI and data analytic innovations. Key amongst this is that AI will transition from experimental to transformational.

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This means that we believe that in 2026, much of the UK public sector - especially in areas like tax, welfare, healthcare and national security - will undergo significant AI-driven change. It will reshape how core services work and are delivered. These shifts will also align Departments’ with flagship national strategies such as the AI Opportunities Action Plan.

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But this is as much a technical journey as it is a people and skills journey. 

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Here are five of the biggest movements we expect to see in 2026:

Government will announce a unified digital identity to enable proactive, joined-up citizen services

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The public sector still runs on poorly connected systems that force people to manage separate accounts for key government services such as tax, benefits and healthcare. 

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This duplication wastes time and prevents services from responding to real needs. A unified digital identity backed by modern architecture changes that. Linked data, held with clear consent rules, lets services act together. For instance, when a citizen gives birth, the system could automatically notify relevant services (child benefit, NHS, passport office) so the family gets support without repetitive applications or interactions.

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So we expect we will see a unified digital identity on top of the recent announcements of the Digital ID scheme.  

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GOV.UK One Login already anchors this with over 11 million people having verified their identity and over 80 government services using it. Ministers want One Login to become the single route into central services by 2027. Additional work on a GOV.UK wallet to cryptographically verify digital credentials points in the same direction. These moves, together with the Blueprint for Modern Digital Government, and the National Data Library, signal intent to break long-standing silos and accelerate adoption across key citizen services.

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Near-universal use of a unified digital identity would mean one secure account that covers all government digital interactions. Cross-checks and information sharing between departments could happen in real time, prompting timely adjustments and proactive notifications. Crucially, it will also provide an important AI use case which analyses patterns to trigger pro-active support and interventions, and to support policy design through deep analysis and evidence.

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Beyond discovering the next antibiotic, AI will be embedded in key NHS workflows

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The NHS is under immense pressure. There is more than ‘one thing’ that is causing this pressure with the Service plagued by systemic backlogs, severe staffing shortages, and the increasingly complex needs of an aging population. 

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AI offers a way to enhance healthcare delivery by assisting clinicians, automating routine work, and improving accuracy. Already, AI has shown it can analyse medical images (like X-rays, CT scans, MRIs) faster and more accurately than human radiologists. It has discovered new antibiotic and drug compounds. And it has proven to be accurate in predicting patient deterioration. These tools help clinicians act sooner and free time for direct patient care.

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We expect to see AI becoming increasingly embedded in NHS workflows. The rationale for this is strong: by augmenting overstretched staff with AI tools, the Service will slash cost, reduce waiting times and improve outcomes.

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Recent government priorities align with this. The 10-Year NHS Plan frames AI as central to service improvement, and targeted investment has already put diagnostic tools for chest conditions into dozens of hospital trusts. National bodies are shaping standards so clinicians know when and how to use AI safely. Trials in primary care and the AI Diagnostic Fund signal intent to scale proven tools and show tangible progress on waiting lists and GP access.

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Some of the AI workflows we expect to see are likely to cover routine diagnoses, triage, and clinical admin.

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If this stalls, or if there is a lack of courage or ambition, then we will expect to see worsened waiting times and frontline skilled staff becoming increasingly demoralised as they manage heavier workloads. This will result in citizen, Service-wide, and political consequences. 

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Electronic Travel Authorisations, risk-based screening, and AI will coalesce into smarter digital-borders

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Immigration is consistently ranked as the biggest public concern in the UK, beating cost of living, the NHS, or the economy. It is also fueling a growing distrust in politics and politicians  amongst a significant portion of the public. So we can expect to see a great deal of investment and political focus in transforming this activity.

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Following a small pilot, the Home Office has now introduced its UK Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) scheme. It covers visitors who are nationals of ‘trusted countries’ and are not usually required to travel with a short term UK visa. It replaces a patchwork system with a single permission that is automated, digital and fast enough to support near-real-time decisions. Quietly, the Home Office has been testing core components of ETA with airlines, airports and ports. Each test builds confidence that the border can move from a point-of-entry bottleneck to an upstream, data-driven checkpoint. The confidence in this has resulted in a “no permission, no travel” policy that kicks in February 2026.

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The technology that enables the ETA service learns from patterns across millions of travel records. It reviews applications in seconds, compares them against past movements, and tests them against known indicators of risk.

We expect to see the AI element of the technology being rolled out more widely across the immigration service, changing how the UK border operates. This ‘AI-powered Digital Border’ will enable smarter upstream screening that can spot red-flag patterns faster than human reviews ever could. It will provide frontline officers with a clearer picture, linking data about people, goods and routes into a single risk model. It means less triaging of paperwork and more focus on those high risk individuals who require additional checks.  

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Predictive policing and AI Analytics will make our societies safer 

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Individual forces across England have been dabbling in AI, and the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) has an ambitious strategy that will see “AI-driven innovation transforming policing, enhancing efficiency, improving decision making, and fostering a more public-focused approach to public safety.”

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This means that AI-driven policing will move from the edges of experimentation into the centre of everyday public-safety work. AI offers a way to strengthen policing by analysing trends, highlighting emerging hotspots, and helping officers to act sooner - or even proactively prevent the crime from happening. 

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Models can process years of incident data, social factors, and environmental signals in seconds. They can scan CCTV and digital evidence far faster than any team on shift. These tools give frontline teams earlier insight, point them to the areas that need attention, and free time for community engagement and prevention.

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With this in mind, we expect a drive towards embedding predictive analytics across policing workflows. It will help forces to allocate stretched resources more intelligently, which will reduce risk and allow for better-informed decision making under pressure. 

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Government priorities reinforce this direction. Safer streets sit high on the political agenda, and recent funding has backed real-time crime mapping, early-warning tools, and improved analytics. The priority workflows are likely to be hotspot prediction, digital-evidence triaging, and intelligence-based support for neighbourhood policing. The consequence of these implementations, if done well, will be measurable and accountable including reductions in priority crime categories and faster suspect identification.

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The workforce will be upskilled to support an AI-transformed public sector

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Through initiatives like the government's AI Opportunities Action Plan, and several policy statements, we know that AI is seen to be a top political priority. The government hopes that will drive economic growth and improve public services. 

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But these ambitions will stall if people don’t know how to use it. Many public sector employees are suspicious of the technology taking their jobs, while senior leaders struggle to govern AI effectively. Additionally, specialist roles such as data scientists or data engineers remain hard to fill because the public and private sector are all competing amongst a small talent pool. To realise the benefits of AI and data, the workforce needs stronger digital literacy, deeper technical expertise, and a culture that supports experimentation rather than avoids it.

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Government already views this as a significant challenge. The Public Accounts Committee warned that patchy capability is slowing AI adoption, and recommended greater investment in skills across the Operational Delivery Profession. Programmes such as the One Big Thing campaign and the expansion of Digital and Data career pathways signal intent to build capability at scale. This is fundamental because if these gaps remain unaddressed, every other strand of digital transformation will stall. 

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With this in mind, we expect to see a shift towards structured, mandatory training for all levels of public sector employees, in digital fundamentals and safe use of AI tools. This will sit alongside the creation of new specialist roles, greater mid-career hiring from industry, and expanded fast-stream pathways for fresh talent and returners. 

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We will also likely see a wider change programme running in parallel and which focuses on culture across the public service. Leaders will be expected to champion innovation and normalise learning from pilot projects even when they fail. Promotion frameworks will start to recognise digital competence as standard. As AI-assisted tools spread through departments, staff will learn how to work with them effectively. 

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We believe that if the public sector shows ambition then it will build a stronger skills base and deliver services that raise citizen satisfaction through smarter, better-equipped, technology-enabled teams.

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